| Allocation Grade | % of Your Daily Stop | When to Use It |
|---|---|---|
| A+ | 80% | Rare. Everything lines up perfectly. Never force this grade. |
| A | 30% | Strong catalyst + confirmed setup + market conditions in your favour. |
| B | 15% | Solid named setup, most confirming signs in place. |
| C | 5% | You're learning this setup. Small risk, real practice, not a P&L trade. |
| D | 0% | The default. Every trade starts here until it earns a higher grade. |
| Why is it "in play" today? | What that looks like |
|---|---|
| 1. News changed the story | Earnings, guidance change, analyst upgrade/downgrade, FDA decision, lawsuit, big contract win, CEO change, major macro headline. |
| 2. The chart changed the story | Breaks a major resistance or support level, clears a multi-month trading range, hits a 52-week high or low. |
| 3. The market/sector changed the opportunity | Strong or weak overall market, unusually high-volatility day, a whole sector rotating in or out of favour, a hot theme (AI, rate cuts, etc.). |
| Step | What to Do |
|---|---|
| 1 | Run a gap scanner: look for stocks gapping up/down at least 3%, with average daily volume over 2 million shares and an ATR (average daily range) over $1. (Finviz Elite screener is the easiest tool for this โ see filters below.) |
| 2 | Read the morning news for any name where the story has genuinely changed overnight. |
| 3 | For earnings names, compare premarket volume to normal: 20% of average volume = worth a look, 50-70% = strong, 100%+ = rare, top priority. |
| 4 | Check premarket relative volume (RVOL): 10% of average daily volume premarket can signal a "trend day" coming; 30% of average volume in the first 10 minutes after open is a strong in-play sign. |
| 5 | Look at the bigger-picture chart โ is there a clean daily/weekly level nearby? If it's gapping into "no man's land" with no clean level, downgrade your interest. |
| 6 | Re-scan after the open, and again in the afternoon, for anything still trading above 1.5x its normal volume. |
| Tool | What to Set Up |
|---|---|
| Finviz | Screener tab โ Average Volume: "Over 2M" ยท Average True Range: "Over 1" ยท Change/Gap: "Up 3%" or "Down 2%" (run both) ยท Relative Volume: "Over 1.5". Save as a preset so it's one click every morning. |
| TC2000 | EasyScan โ build a custom scan comparing today's volume/range to prior days (this is the only tool of the three that easily looks at yesterday's bar vs today's). Good for multi-day setups like Second Day Play and Liquidity Trap below. |
| Trade Ideas | Best for real-time, all-day alerts โ it scans the whole market continuously and pings you the moment a stock matches your filters (volume surge, news, range break). Use this once your morning watchlist is built, to catch the actual trigger moment. |
| Market Mood Today | What to Favour |
|---|---|
| Strong uptrend | Favour long/bullish setups (Second Day Play, Big Dog, Hitchhiker, Fashionably Late, ORB longs). Be cautious shorting into strength. |
| Strong downtrend | Favour short/bearish setups (Tidal Wave, Rubberband, ORB shorts). Be cautious buying into weakness. |
| Choppy / range-bound | Favour mean-reversion setups (Backside Scalp, Second Chance, Overextension Short). Momentum setups tend to fail โ reduce size or skip. |
| Core Rule | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Watch ONE side | Watch only the side of the book that SHOULD be in control given your thesis (the offer if you expect sellers to press, the bid if you expect buyers to press). Trying to watch both sides at once overwhelms almost everyone โ switch sides only at a clear turning point. |
| A signal needs 2 steps | 1) A DISTINCT, noticeable change in behaviour or speed, then 2) confirmation/follow-through. A single print is never enough, and price alone (without seeing HOW it traded) is not enough either. |
| Size is relative, not absolute | "Big" size means big FOR THAT STOCK'S normal clip โ 10,000 shares might be huge for one stock and tiny for another. A held level only matters if it's genuinely large for that name and survives about 3 real tests without shrinking (most apparent "holds" โ about 70% โ are not actually significant). |
| Displayed size โ total size | A 100-share offer showing on screen doesn't mean only 100 shares are actually for sale โ real size can be hidden. Don't assume what you see is the whole picture. |
| Classify tape speed | Slow / Average / Fast. Real edge lives in FAST, sustained tape. Slow tape has little edge. Average tape is "tricky" and produces false signals โ be extra cautious here. |
| What You See | What It Means | What To Do |
|---|---|---|
| Price leaks through a level by a few cents, then is INSTANTLY re-bid (or re-offered on the short side) | Sellers (or buyers) tried and failed โ the level is genuinely defended | Core entry signal. Buy the re-bid, risk just under the level (mirror for shorts) |
| Level breaks and is NOT re-bid within about 10 seconds | The level has genuinely failed | Don't buy it. If you're already long off it, get out |
| A big offer that never decrements, only refreshes slightly | A defended ceiling โ real resistance | Don't buy into it. Consider shorting against it once price stalls below |
| Offers stacked at a level get lifted and visibly decremented on the tape | A genuine breakout โ real buyers are taking size | Enter, risk the low of day or the broken level |
| Offers at a new high are NOT decrementing even though price is there | Buyers are running out of steam | Consider selling into it rather than chasing further |
| Bids step up for a couple of minutes, then stall and can't hold | The bounce is over | Consider shorting against the resistance that stopped it |
| A big bid shows on screen but no real volume trades through it | May be "bait" or may get pulled โ not confirmed support yet | Don't treat it as real support until proven โ ask "was it taken or pulled?" |
| Stock can't trade lower on elevated volume after a gap | Buyers are absorbing all the selling | Lean long (mirror: if it can't trade higher, lean short) |
| Spread narrows after being wide | Buyers and sellers are converging on a price โ a decision point is close | Follow whichever side wins that decision |
| Level tested 3+ times and each time it holds weaker | The support/resistance is wearing out ("Tidal Wave" pattern) | Favour the eventual break, in the direction of the wearing-down side |
| Situation | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Confirming before sizing up | Pay a slightly worse price for real confirmation โ it buys you a tighter stop and lets you safely take more size. Beginners: size in AFTER the turn confirms, not before. Building size in stages as confirmation increases is safer than going full-size immediately. |
| Adding to a winning position | Only add on a low-volume pullback/pause at support with a clearly defined "this is wrong" point, or on a re-bid with real speed behind it. NEVER add far away from your level (it wrecks your reward-to-risk), never average up after the main move is already done, and never add to a loser. |
| Exiting / taking profit | The single most common mistake in tape reading is selling too early. Plan your exit rule BEFORE you enter. Hold a core position with a raised (never lowered) stop, and sell for an actual tape/level reason โ not just because you're nervous or bored. |
| Spotting the end of a move | Watch for: heavy repeated supply at a level (lighten by at least a third), offers at a new high no longer decrementing, momentum failing twice at the same level, or the tape suddenly slowing while sellers hit the bid hard. |
| Pattern | Diagram | Implies | What It Looks Like | What It Suggests |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head and Shoulders | Reversal (top) | Three peaks: a left "shoulder," a higher middle peak ("head"), then a right "shoulder" roughly level with the left. A "neckline" connects the two lows between the peaks. | An uptrend is running out of buyers โ each rally attempt is weaker. A break below the neckline (ideally on rising volume) suggests the uptrend is over and a move down may follow, often projected by the height from head to neckline. | |
| Inverse Head and Shoulders | Reversal (bottom) | The mirror image โ three troughs, with the middle one lowest. A neckline connects the two highs between the troughs. | A downtrend is running out of sellers. A break above the neckline suggests the downtrend is over and a move up may follow. | |
| Double Top | Reversal (top) | Price hits roughly the same high twice, with a pullback in between (looks like an "M"). The second peak often shows weaker volume than the first. | Buyers tried twice to push through the same level and failed both times โ a sign resistance is real. A break below the low between the two peaks suggests further downside. | |
| Double Bottom | Reversal (bottom) | The mirror image โ price hits roughly the same low twice (looks like a "W"), with a bounce in between. | Sellers tried twice to break the same level and failed โ support is real. A break above the high between the two lows suggests further upside. | |
| Cup and Handle | Bullish continuation | A rounded "U" shaped dip and recovery (the cup), followed by a smaller, shorter pullback near the old high (the handle), then a break higher. | A gradual shift from selling to buying pressure, then one final shake-out (the handle) before the real move. Often associated with accumulation โ buyers building a position patiently. Break above the handle's high suggests continuation upward. | |
| Ascending Triangle | Bullish continuation (usually) | A flat resistance line on top, with a rising line of higher lows underneath โ the range narrows as it approaches the top. | Buyers are becoming more aggressive (each dip is bought at a higher price) while sellers defend the same ceiling. The squeeze usually resolves upward as buyers eventually overwhelm that resistance โ this is one version of SMB's "Big Dog Consolidation." | |
| Descending Triangle | Bearish continuation (usually) | A flat support line on the bottom, with a falling line of lower highs above it โ the range narrows as it approaches the bottom. | Sellers are becoming more aggressive (each bounce is sold at a lower price) while buyers defend the same floor. Usually resolves downward as sellers eventually break that support. | |
| Symmetrical Triangle | Continuation, direction unclear | Both the highs and lows converge toward a point โ lower highs AND higher lows at the same time, like a narrowing wedge shape. | Indecision โ buyers and sellers are in a genuine standoff, with the range compressing. Usually breaks in the direction of the PRIOR trend, but can go either way โ wait for the actual break rather than guessing. | |
| Bull Flag / Bull Pennant | Bullish continuation | A sharp move up (the "pole"), followed by a tight, controlled pullback or sideways drift (the "flag" or "pennant") on noticeably LOWER volume than the initial move. | A brief pause to digest gains before the trend likely continues โ this is SMB's "Big Dog Consolidation" setup (see Section 5, Setup #2). Falling volume during the pause is the key confirming detail; rising volume during the pause is a warning the pattern may fail. | |
| Bear Flag / Bear Pennant | Bearish continuation | The mirror image โ a sharp move down (the pole), followed by a tight upward drift or sideways pause (the flag) on lower volume. | A brief pause before the downtrend likely continues. Same logic as the bull flag, inverted. | |
| Rising Wedge | Often bearish, even while rising | Both the highs and lows are rising, but the lows are rising FASTER than the highs, so the range narrows while still trending up. | Momentum is quietly weakening even as price grinds higher โ each new high is being made with less conviction. Often precedes a reversal or sharp pullback, especially after an extended uptrend. | |
| Falling Wedge | Often bullish, even while falling | The mirror image โ both highs and lows are falling, but the highs are falling faster, narrowing the range while still trending down. | Selling pressure is quietly weakening even as price grinds lower. Often precedes a reversal or sharp bounce. | |
| Rectangle / Range | Indecision / consolidation | Price bounces between a clear, roughly horizontal support level and resistance level repeatedly, with no clear trend. | A genuine standoff between buyers and sellers at known levels. Trade the confirmed edges (buy near support, sell near resistance) OR wait for a genuine breakout of either side โ never guess the middle of the range. |
| Setup | Timing | Trigger | Stop / Target | Worked Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Second Day Play ๐ Official PDF โ |
Morning | A stock trended hard yesterday (Day 1). Today (Day 2), it tests yesterday's support again. Enter when a candle closes back above the previous candle's high โ the "Big Player" candle. | Stop: 2ยข below Day-1's support/low Target: 2x the height of Day-1's range |
XYZ ran 40โ50 on Day 1. Day 2 dips to test 48, then reclaims. Entry 48.50, stop 47.80 (0.70 risk), target = 2x the 10-pt range, aiming toward the low 60s. |
| 2. Big Dog Consolidation ๐ Official PDF โ |
Midday (11am-1:30pm) | Stock has a strong opening drive, then builds a tight flag/wedge. Volume should DECREASE while it builds. Buy the break above the top of the pattern. | Stop: 2ยข below the base of the pattern Target: 2 waves, exit fully on a double-bar break lower |
XYZ rallies 50โ55, flags 54-55 for 30 min on falling volume. Entry 55.10, stop 53.90 (1.20 risk). Wave 1 to ~57, wave 2 to ~59. |
| 3. Gap, Give and Go ๐ Official PDF โ |
Opening drive (before 9:45am) | Stock gaps up, sells off hard, but HOLDS above a key support level (premarket low). A short 3-7 min consolidation forms above that level. Buy the break higher. | Stop: 2ยข below the consolidation low Target: 2 waves, exit on double-bar break against you |
XYZ gaps to 45, sells to 43.20 (holds above 43.00 premarket low). Consolidates 43.20-43.60. Entry 43.65, stop 43.18 (0.47 risk). Move 1 to 44.50, move 2 to 45.80. |
| 4. Opening Range Break (ORB) ๐ Official PDF โ |
First 15-30 min | Mark the high/low of the first 15-30 minutes. Buy above the high (or short below the low) on rising volume โ look for a flood of green (or red) prints. | Stop: just below/above the breakout bar Target: 2x the opening range height |
First 15-min range: 100.00-101.00. Break above 101.00 on volume. Entry 101.10, stop 100.80 (0.30 risk), target 103.10 โ about 6.7:1 reward-to-risk. |
| 5. Breaking News ๐ Official PDF โ |
Any time, as it happens | A sudden headline hits (earnings, M&A, macro). Score it -10 to +10. If it's a genuine momentum move, buy/sell against the tape immediately. If not, wait for a pullback instead. | Stop: the "undisturbed" pre-news price Target: ride tape momentum, cover most into extreme speed |
XYZ at 30.00 gets a +8 contract-win headline, volume spikes 20kโ1M shares. Entry on the break of the post-news high, 31.50. Stop 30.00 (1.50 risk). Runs to 36.00 โ cover into the momentum. |
| 6. Tidal Wave / Bouncy Ball ๐ Official PDF โ |
Any time | Short scalp (inverted for longs). Price bounces into a key support/resistance level 2-3 times, each bounce WEAKER than the last. Enter short on the 3rd, failed bounce. | Stop: 2ยข above the high of the nearest bounce Target: half off at 2x the risk, rest at 3x |
XYZ bounces into 100 three times, weaker each time: 99.80, 99.50, 99.20. Short 99.10 on the 3rd failure, stop 99.22 (0.12 risk). Target 1: 98.86. Target 2: 98.74. |
| 7. Spencer Scalp ๐ Official PDF โ |
Any session time | Stock consolidates 20+ minutes in the upper third of the day's range on steady, EQUAL-SIZE volume (a sign of a quiet institutional buy program). Buy the break higher. | Stop: 2ยข below the consolidation low Target: sell 1/4 at 1:1, 1/2 at 2:1, final 1/4 at 3:1 |
XYZ ranges 60.00-60.50 for 25 min on steady volume. Entry 60.60 on the break, stop 59.98 (0.62 risk). Sell 1/4 at 61.22, 1/2 at 61.84, last 1/4 at 62.46. |
| 8. Fashionably Late Scalp ๐ Official PDF โ |
10:00am-1:30pm | An upward-sloping 9 EMA crosses a flat/downward-sloping VWAP line. Enter long the moment the cross happens (inverted for shorts). | Stop: 1/3 of the (VWAP to low-of-day) distance Target: 1 full measured move above the cross Official stats: 60% win rate, 3:1 R:R |
Low of day 25.00, 9EMA crosses VWAP at 26.00 (1.00 distance). Entry 26.05, stop 25.72 (0.33 risk). Target 27.05 (1.00 gain) โ matches the 3:1 ratio. |
| 9. Hitchhiker Scalp ๐ Official PDF โ |
Opening drive (before 9:59am) | Stock drives higher off the open, then holds SIDEWAYS for 5-20 minutes (instead of the usual pullback) โ a sign of a large institutional order needing to be filled. Buy the break of that range. | Stop: 2ยข below the consolidation low Target: exit half into wave 1, half into wave 2 Official stats: 55-60% win rate, 1.9:1 R:R |
XYZ opens at 20, drives to 21.50, holds sideways 21.30-21.50 for 12 min. Entry 21.55, stop 21.28 (0.27 risk). Wave 1: 22.05, wave 2: 22.55. |
| 10. Backside Scalp ๐ Official PDF โ |
10am-1:30pm | Stock sells off, then stalls, printing at least 1 higher high AND 1 higher low above a rising 9 EMA (a "backside" forms). Enter on the break of a 1-min consolidation. | Stop: 2ยข below the most recent higher low Target: exit the WHOLE position at VWAP Official stats: 50-60% win rate, 1.4:1 R:R |
XYZ sells 50โ45, stalls, prints higher low 45.20 then higher high 46.00. Entry 46.10, stop 45.18 (0.92 risk). VWAP at 47.40 = full exit target (1.30 gain). |
| 11. Second Chance Scalp ๐ Official PDF โ |
Any session time | A resistance level just broke. Price pulls back to retest that same level. Enter when a candle closes back above the prior candle, confirming buyers are still there. | Stop: 2ยข below the low of the turn candle Target: sell half at the pullback high, trail the rest below the 9EMA Official stats: 50-55% win rate, 1.9:1 R:R |
XYZ breaks 30.00, runs to 30.80, pulls back to retest 30.00, then closes above the prior candle at 30.15. Entry 30.20, stop 29.85 (0.35 risk). Sell half at 30.80. |
| 12. Rubberband Scalp ๐ Official PDF โ |
10am-1:30pm | Stock has a controlled move down, then sellers get sloppy and rush โ an unsustainable acceleration. Buy the moment a single candle clears the highs of the 2+ prior candles (the "snapback"). | Stop: 2ยข below the low of day Target: thirds โ 1:1, 2:1, then trail into VWAP Official stats: 60-65% win rate, 1.6:1 R:R |
XYZ drops 40โ34 on 5x volume, then a candle clears the prior 2 highs at 34.60. Entry 34.65, stop 33.98 (0.67 risk). Exit thirds at 35.32, 35.99, and trail into VWAP ~37.00. |
| 13. Liquidity Trap | Multi-day (Day 1-2-3) | Best in a hot small-cap. Day 1 = huge volume spike day. Day 2 = quiet inside day holding the gains. Day 3 = breaks above Day-2's high on fresh volume. Buy on confirmation. | Stop: under the Day-1 high, tightened once confirmed Target: scale out 20% at a time into the first leg |
XYZ runs 3โ8 on Day 1 (huge volume). Day 2 quiet 7.50-7.90. Day 3 breaks 7.90 on fresh volume. Starter entry 8.00, stop 7.40 (0.60 risk), add to full size at 8.20 once confirmed. |
| 14. IPO Playbook | First sessions of a new listing | Treat the first 20-30 min as pure price discovery. Then trade the range break, a shallow pullback, or a later consolidation break โ reduce size, IPOs are extra volatile. | Stop: wide (~10% below the open print, no history yet) Target: trail with a 1-2 bar trailing stop |
XYZ IPOs, prints at 25.00, drives up with no pause. Entry near the print, 25.20. Stop ~10% below = 22.50 (2.70 risk, deliberately wide). Trail the trend once it develops. |
| 15. Overextension Short | Multi-day, mean-reversion | A stock has run too far, too fast: RSI 85+ (ideally 90+), moved 4+ ATRs in 5 sessions, outside the Bollinger Bands, on capitulatory 5x+ volume. Short the break of a lower high. | Stop: a few cents above the lower high, or VWAP Target: prior day's high/low, the daily 5 EMA |
XYZ ran 100โ180 in 5 sessions, RSI 92, 6x volume. Bounce fails at a lower high of 176 (below the prior 180 high), then breaks below 172 support. Short 171.50, stop 176.10 (4.60 risk โ just above the lower high). Target 1: 165.00 (about 1.4:1). Target 2: the 5 EMA ~160.00 (about 2.5:1). |
| What you see on the chart | Setup to check |
|---|---|
| Stock trended hard yesterday, testing that level again today | Second Day Play |
| Strong opener building a flag/wedge midday | Big Dog Consolidation |
| Gap up sold off hard but holding a support level | Gap, Give and Go |
| Tight opening range about to break on volume | Opening Range Break (ORB) |
| Sudden headline just hit the tape | Breaking News |
| Stock bouncing weaker and weaker into a level | Tidal Wave / Bouncy Ball |
| Long, steady institutional-looking consolidation near highs | Spencer Scalp |
| 9 EMA crossing VWAP after a slow turn off the low | Fashionably Late Scalp |
| Opening drive holding sideways in the upper 1/3 of range | Hitchhiker Scalp |
| Stock stalling and reversing off a sell-off, higher lows forming | Backside Scalp |
| Missed the first breakout, price retesting the level | Second Chance Scalp |
| Extended move suddenly snaps back with a double-bar break | Rubberband Scalp |
| Small-cap Day 1 huge volume, Day 2 quiet, Day 3 breaking out | Liquidity Trap |
| Fresh IPO in its first sessions | IPO Playbook |
| Multi-day parabolic run, extreme RSI, capitulatory volume | Overextension Short |
| Rule | Number |
|---|---|
| Position size formula | Shares = $ Risk รท (Entry โ Stop). $ Risk = Daily Stop ร Allocation % |
| Allocation tiers | A+ = 80%, A = 30%, B = 15%, C = 5%, D = 0% of your Daily Stop |
| Rule of 20 | Minimum 20 logged examples, C-size only, before sizing up on a new setup |
| Minimum target standard | At least 2:1 reward-to-risk on every trade |
| Stocks In Play scan filters | Gap 3%+, average volume over 2M shares, ATR over $1 |
| Premarket volume signal | 10% of average volume premarket = possible trend day; 30%+ = strong signal |
| Mean-reversion short qualifiers | RSI 85+ (ideally 90+), 4+ ATRs in 5 sessions, outside Bollinger Bands, 5x+ volume |
| Watchlist cap | 3 names (beginner), 5-7 names (experienced) |
| Type | What It Is / What To Do |
|---|---|
| Macro Pressure | Existential worries that have nothing to do with the trade in front of you ("will I make it," "can I pay my bills"). You CANNOT fix a Macro problem with a trade โ trying to trade your way out of financial fear is how accounts blow up. |
| Micro Pressure | Normal, in-the-moment discomfort of an active trade ("I'm down $500, should I cut it"). This is NORMAL. Handle it with: 1) Label the feeling out loud, 2) Force a 60-second pause, hands off the keyboard, 3) Re-apply ASET fresh before acting. |